Make your own first read.
- Five macro event checklists
- Official sources & release calendars
- New York clock & session windows
Make sense of the next release.
Find the numbers to check, the common misread and the original source.
MACRO EVENT GUIDE
Free referenceKnow what to look for.
Is inflation cooling beneath the headline?
Inflation helps frame the policy debate. The mix and the comparison period matter as much as the headline rate.
- 01
Match the measures
Compare monthly with monthly and annual with annual. Keep headline inflation separate from core, which excludes food and energy.
- 02
Look inside the change
For CPI, look at shelter, services and energy. For PCE, check the price measures alongside real spending. A lower energy bill can soften the headline without broad disinflation.
- 03
Keep expectations separate
Actual versus the previous reading measures change. Actual versus a sourced, pre-release consensus measures surprise. They answer different questions.
Easy to misread
Lower inflation does not mean prices fell. It can mean prices are still rising, just more slowly.
Check the release schedule.
Use the issuing agency’s calendar for the next release time and schedule changes.
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